The State of the Race

We're in the thick of awards season, with nearly all of the guilds having announced their nominees, and the major critics' groups having picked their winners.  While there's a major consensus - which is that The Social Network is a staggering masterpiece - what excites me is the number of categories that are as yet uncertain.  While nearly every category has a definite front-runner, this year seems ripe for some surprises and upsets.  I'm just hoping that the nominations aren't the cookie-cutter line-up we've seen thus far.

Breakdown by category:

Best Picture


The Social Network all but has this in the bag.  Critics groups have been nearly unanimous that David Fincher's latest masterwork is the best of the year, and this humble film-goer is in absolute agreement.  In a year of impressive entries from some of Hollywood's most prolific directors, The Social Network stands head-and-shoulders above the rest.

Of course, when any movie garners the sort of widespread support seen here, the nay-sayers get very vocal.  One of the biggest statements floating around out there is that the characters in The Social Network aren't likable enough for it to win Best Picture.  This seems like a strange sentiment, but it isn't completely off-base.  Certainly, in the Foreign Film category, the Academy tends to go for the emotional choice (how else did Departures take home the prize?), so it's possible that the same could hold true for the big race, too.  However, the foreign category also requires that voters see all five films, meaning that much of the Academy doesn't actually make a choice; usually, the older members' opinion reigns supreme there.  The younger voters should surely embrace Fincher and screenwriter Aaron Sorkin's brainy take on Facebook's birth.  Plus, the Academy is perfectly capable of choosing a film based on what they think is best; There Will Be Blood and The Hurt Locker are testament to that fact.

What films could possibly pull an upset?  That's where things get interesting.  The King's Speech was long supposed to be the front-runner in this race, and its box office and meticulous detail could push it to the winner's podium, but to me, it seems too obviously bait-y to score a win.  It's a beautifully made movie, but it's too boring a choice (not that such thoughts will really bother the Academy).

Black Swan seems like the biggest challenger standing in The Social Network's way on its path to absolute domination.  The film has been performing incredibly at the box office, and it has the public talking.  Even more than Inception or Toy Story 3 (both viable contenders in their own right), Black Swan has the makings of being the public's choice for Best Picture.  Even my non-film friends are flocking to it and clamoring about how amazing it is.

Along with the mentioned films, the category will be rounded out by the likes of 127 Hours, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Winter's Bone, and True Grit, which is a major player but will likely have its best chances to win for its cinematography and for Hailee Steinfeld (if she's nominated in the supporting race).

To sum up, predicted nominees: The Social Network, The King's Speech, Toy Story 3, Inception, Black Swan, 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right, True Grit, Winter's Bone, The Fighter
Alternates: The Town could sneak in over Winter's Bone, while Shutter Island is a very dark horse, indeed
Predicted winner: The Social Network


Best Director


David Fincher is an easy front-runner here.  His body of work speaks for itself, and he has yet to win an Oscar, so there's no better time to award him a little naked golden fella.  Even if The Social Network fails to win Best Picture, Fincher is a safe bet for Best Director.

The other contenders will line up with other Best Picture contenders (similar to last year, the nominees in this category will likely reveal what films would be up for Best Picture if it were still a five-horse race).  Now that we get ten Best Picture nominees, we'll probably never see a disconnect between the two categories again as we sometimes used to.

The best bets are Darren Aronofsky, Tom Hooper, Christopher Nolan (at last!), and the Coens.  The Coens' spot may be taken by Danny Boyle or a true surprise like Lisa Cholodenko or Debra Granik.

Predicted nominees: Fincher, Aronofsky, Hooper, Nolan, Coens
Alernates: Boyle, Granik, Cholodenko
Predicted winner: Fincher

Best Actor


Here's where things get interesting.  Early in the season, it seemed like Colin Firth's impressive turn in The King's Speech was an unstoppable force like Jeff Bridges last year.  Instead, the precursors have been largely split, mainly between Firth and The Social Network's Jesse Eisenberg, along with the occasional win for James Franco for 127 Hours (my personal preference).  These three actors comprise the front-runners in the race - the sure things if you will (think Frank Langella, Mickey Rourke, and Sean Penn a couple years ago) - while the other two spots are harder to determine.

Jeff Bridges could make a repeat appearance just a year after winning his first Oscar for his work in True Grit.  His performance has gotten great reactions, and he's one of the more likable stars in Hollywood today.  Personally, I feel his work is more one-note than some of the other performances out there, but love for the film as a whole could equal a nomination for its star, as well.  (A similar scenario could result in a nomination for The Fighter's Mark Wahlberg, but he'll likely be the one member of the impressive ensemble not in the running).

Ryan Gosling seems like an increasingly safe bet for Blue Valentine.  He's a former nominee who has apparently surpassed anything he's done before (I've yet to see the film, but I believe the buzz), so he could easily take the fifth spot.

Other strong contenders are Biutiful's Javier Bardem, who benefits from an Oscar pedigree and vocal support from stars like Julia Roberts, who recently went to bat for his performance, and Robert Duvall, who is touchingly gruff (and gruffingly hairy... yes, "gruffingly") in Get Low.

Predicted nominees: Firth, Franco, Eisenberg, Bridges, Gosling
Alternates: Bardem, Duvall
Predicted winner: Firth

Best Actress


This is one of the tightest races of the award season.  Natalie Portman's transformative turn in Black Swan, a journey into the darkest depths of human ambition, is pitted against the warm, tender maternity Annette Bening so beautifully portrays in The Kids Are All Right.  I'm almost tempted to pull out a phrase that I hate to hear people use when discussing film: something along the lines of "It isn't even fair to compare _______ and _______ because they're so different."

Side note: I hate when people say that because a movie is a movie, so it always makes sense to compare two movies, even if you're comparing Citizen Kane to Legally Blonde.  You can compare them based on the technique and artistry or on the sheer enjoyment you get from watching them, but it doesn't make sense to say two films can't be compared because they're so different.  If they weren't different, there would be no point in comparing them in the first place.

But I digress.

While Portman's performance benefits from how demanding the role is: the weight loss, physical injury, dance training, and the sheer psychological insanity Nina Sayers undergoes while she prepares for Swan Lake, Bening has something important that Portman lacks: the overdue factor.  Bening has been nominated (and lost) thrice before.  Bening had a great year last year; in addition to Kids, she also gave a great turn in Mother and Child, so she could also get a bump for that (a la Sandra Bullock last year with her two blockbusters).  This is a tough one to call, because each actress undoubtedly deserves the honor.  They both deliver great performances, so either would be a worthy victor.

Predicted nominees: Portman, Bening, Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Alternates: Lesley Manville (Another Year), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right)
Predicted winner: Portman

Best Supporting Actor


This is probably the easiest of the acting races to call.  Christian Bale, who has shockingly never been nominated for an Oscar, will likely win for his first.  His work in The Fighter represents the best of his impressive career; it's almost eerie how completely he disappears into the role, and it's great fun to see how spot-on his portrayal is once the real-life counterparts pop up during the film's credits.  This is truly Bale's race to lose.

His biggest competition is Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech, but Rush already has an Oscar, and his film will likely find its recognition in the races for Actor and Original Screenplay.

Predicted nominees: Bale, Rush, Andrew Garfield (The Social Network), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Alternates: Jeremy Renner (The Town), Sam Rockwell (Conviction)
Predicted winner: Bale

Best Supporting Actress


Unlike Supporting Actor, the race for Best Supporting Actress is probably the toughest of all to call.  There are three contenders who, by various parties and pundits, might be called the front-runner: True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld (who could conceivably be up for Best Actress instead, but I doubt that will happen), along with The Fighter's Melissa Leo and Amy Adams.  Leo and Adams are both past nominees (this will be Adams' third time), so that could help their chances, but the Academy also likes to reward new talent, as when Jennifer Hudson took this prize back in 2007.

Jacki Weaver has been popping up quite a bit for her villainous turn in the Australian crime drama Animal Kingdom, and she certainly stands a good chance of showing up here, as well.  She can't be counted out as a potential spoiler to win, as well.

Mila Kunis (Black Swan) and Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech) are also big contenders for this prize, though Carter's work seems to slight to be recognized to me.  She's lost traction as awards season has gone on (she was originally considered a front-runner to win and an inevitable nominee), so I won't be surprised if she misses the cut.

Predicted nominees: Steinfeld, Leo, Adams, Weaver, Kunis
Alternates: Carter, Barbara Hershey (Black Swan)
Predicted winner: Leo

Best Screenplay (Original and Adapted)


The race for Best Adapted Screenplay is perhaps the only major race that I would bet my life on at this moment.  Aaron Sorkin has this one in the bag like few nominees ever have a race all tied up.  It's simply the best screenplay of the year, everyone knows it, and it will win.

For Best Original Screenplay, the race is between three of the year's biggest contenders: Black Swan, Inception, and The King's Speech.  Any of them could conceivably win.  Inception has the crazy complexity, Black Swan has the brilliant psychology (emphasis on the psycho), and The King's Speech has the historically significant tale of the overcoming obstacles.

Predicted nominees: Original: The King's Speech, Inception, Black Swan, The Kids Are All Right, The Fighter  Adapted: The Social Network, Toy Story 3, 127 Hours, Winter's Bone, True Grit
Alternates: Original: Another Year, Four Lions  Adapted: The Town
Predicted winners: Original: The King's Speech  Adapted: The Social Network


Of course, when the nominees are announced, I could find that many of my predictions are obsolete because of the copious surprises.  It's doubtful such a scenario will unfold, but it would certainly make an already-fun awards season even more fun.