Golden Globe Nomination Predictions

Each year, my interest in awards season wanes further; what once dominated my daily thoughts now receives a fraction of my afterthoughts.  The ugliness that comes out in the online community of bloggers, predictors, and movie lovers has turned me off to the whole circus.  The venom is bizarre, unwarranted, disgusting.  Awards season is, ultimately, meaningless - a bunch of rich, beautiful people patting each other on the back and giving each other trophies.

But I love movies.  And awards season, if watched with the right mixture of amusement and interest, can be very fun.  The regional critics groups show their strange proclivities, and anytime an underdog receives a notice, it's cause for a moment of celebration, before realizing they still don't stand a chance at the Oscars.  It's fun to see the movies we love get loved on by other people, groups, and organizations.

The way to handle the madness: celebrate the wins that align with your personal preferences, and shrug off those that don't.  It doesn't matter.  For me, this season has been a joy so far, since Boyhood is my favorite movie of the year by a mile, and keeps winning everything.

So, the awards season coverage here is going to be less than ever before.  I'll pretty much only predict and comment on the Golden Globes and the Oscars, since they're the two biggest shows.  The Globes are especially fun to predict, as the split categories open the field, making room for obscure films and performances.  If these predictions prove right, I'll be a pretty happy guy.  As always, I'm only predicting the film awards.

Best Picture - Drama
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Selma
Unbroken
Whiplash

Every year, I end up predicting more than five nominees in this category, even though such an occasion is very rare.  I just can't figure out which of these six would lose its spot; and I'm still leaving out strong contenders like American Sniper and The Theory of Everything.  Anyone who says this is a weak year for film is crazy.

Best Actor - Drama
Ben Affleck, Gone Girl
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

I think Foxcatcher might prove too dark and distant for the HFPA's taste, so I'm leaving off Steve Carrell and Channing Tatum, whose star status might otherwise make them stronger contenders here than with other groups.  David Fincher's films tend to do well here, so I expect Gone Girl to make a strong showing; Ben Affleck is a huge star, so he should be able to sneak into a crowded field over the Foxcatcher fellas and Timothy Spall.

Best Actress - Drama
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Marion Cotillard has been on fire this season, and should claim that tricky fifth slot a la Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea a couple years ago.

Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Big Eyes
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods

There are a ton of potential contenders here, which is a refreshing change of pace for a category that has a history of being filled with bland junk like Burlesque.  It's possible Annie could claim a slot, as the HFPA really likes its musicals, but I think Into the Woods should scratch that itch enough on its own.  Begin Again could make it in, too.

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Chris Pratt, Guardians of the Galaxy

Chris Pratt making the cut would be historic, as comic book movies don't have a presence here, but since Pratt is the new It Guy, and his performance in Guardians of the Galaxy is so star-making and hilarious, I think he'll get a nod for the blockbuster.  (Kind of like Robert Downey Jr. getting in for Sherlock Holmes back in the day.)

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Angelina Jolie, Maleficent
Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Jenny Slate, Obvious Child

My greatest Globes wish is for Jenny Slate to get a nomination for her amazing work in Obvious Child, and this is a category where the HFPA manages to make some cool choices, such as Julie Delpy and Greta Gerwig garnering nominations last year.  The rest of the slate is full of big names - Jolie and Moore should be double nominees, though the latter is a riskier prediction.

Best Supporting Actor
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
JK Simmons, Whiplash
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

This is one of the line-ups I'm most confident about.  Though if the HFPA really gobbles up Into the Woods and Unbroken, Chris Pine and Miyavi could bump Ruffalo and/or Waltz.

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Carrie Coon, Gone Girl
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

I'm counting on Gone Girl doing really well, meaning scene-stealing Coon makes it in over more prominent possibilities like Laura Dern and Emma Stone.  Stone is such a huge star, though, that she might get the nod over Coon.

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken

As is usually the case, I expect the dramas to dominate this category.  Jolie should ride her star to a nomination, especially since Unbroken seems like the kind of movie that the HFPA would love.  It would be awesome if Ava DuVernay could make it in, and she's probably the most likely spoiler.

Best Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Joel and Ethan Coen, Unbroken
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Neither Wes Anderson nor Paul Thomas Anderson have ever been nominated for a Globe, so I'm not going to predict that to change this year.  Shame, as The Grand Budapest Hotel is the best-written script of the year.

Best Foreign Language Film
Force Majeure
Ida
Mommy
Two Days, One Night
Wild Tales

I'm thinking the HFPA fills this category with the more easily digestible contenders; even though many of these films deal with heavy subject matter, they're all a pleasure to watch, certainly more so than other potential nominees like Winter Sleep and Leviathan.

Best Animated Feature Film
Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

ParaNorman didn't make the cut its year, so I think The Book of Life might get in over The Boxtrolls.

Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game
Alexandre Desplat, Unbroken
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Gone Girl
Antonio Sanchez, Birdman
Hans Zimmer, Interstellar

It's very rare for a composer to get double nominees, but I think Desplat might manage this year.  Reznor and Ross and Zimmer are favorites, so they should make the cut easily.  Sanchez's jazzy wonder should round out the category.

Best Original Song
"Everything is Awesome!!!," The LEGO Movie
"Glory," Selma
"The Last Goodbye," The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
"Lost Stars," Begin Again
"Split the Difference," Boyhood

Pretty much just spitballing here.  Sometimes this category is filled with recognizable singers, other years not as much.  Who knows?