Oscar Nomination Predictions

I don't know why I'm bothering with this this year, but it's always fun to give it a go, so here are my stabs at predicting Thursday's Oscar nominations.

Best Picture
This is a tough category to predict, as the rules allow for anywhere from five to ten nominees, yet they've always yielded a field of nine since they were instated a few years ago.  Thus, common wisdom is to predict nine, though some feel that the lack of passionate fervor for this year's crop may result in fewer nominees, as a film needs enough #1 votes to make it in (and how many people really would rank The Theory of Everything as their first choice?).  Still, since nine seems to be the magic number, I'll stick with it.

The necessity of #1 votes means that polarizing films, a la Gone Girl or Interstellar, can make it in due to having a core fan base; just think of how The Tree of Life scored a few years ago.  That sappy, bait-y fare like Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close and War Horse have been nominated in years past means we can't rule out a nomination for Unbroken, either.

American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Alternate/#10: Nightcrawler

Best Director
Again, I'm spitballing here, as there are a few locks, and then a wide open field.  The helmers of The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything haven't received as much acclaim as their films, but it's dangerous to bet against the little guys (especially in the former case, with Weinstein behind him).  Still, the directors' branch sometimes goes their own way, like nominating Haneke and Zeitlin over Bigelow and Affleck.  So we could see some cool choices.  I think Chazelle will sneak in due to a cool narrative (young guy shoots a killer movie in less than three weeks) that resulted in a towering film.

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Ava DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Alternate: Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Best Actor
There was a time when this race seemed wide open and confusing.  Now, it's Keaton's to lose with everyone else jockeying for a nomination.  General goodwill for The Grand Budapest Hotel should garner it a deserved nomination for Fiennes in what is a perfectly calibrated performance, and Gyllenhaal will likely beat out the competition due to how crazy his performance is; plus, he scored with SAG.

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Alternate: David Oyelowo, Selma

Best Actress
This category is all but locked up.  Aniston could get booted, but it's very unlikely.

Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Alternate: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Best Supporting Actor
My only out-there pick here is Steve Carell for Foxcatcher.  He got a supporting mention at the BAFTAs, and I think the Academy will do the same.  It's like a reverse-Winslet.  And that way, they don't have to nominate The Judge for anything.

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
JK Simmons, Whiplash

Alternate: Robert Duvall, The Judge

Best Supporting Actress
This is another category with little wiggle room, which doesn't matter, because Arquette is going to win and it's going to be glorious and I might cry.  Yay!

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Alternate: Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer

Best Original Screenplay
The usual suspects here, though I expect Mike Leigh to show up, too, since the writers' branch really likes him, having nominated Happy-Go-Lucky and Another Year when other branches didn't recognize them.

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu et. al., Birdman
Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner
Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Alternate: Paul Webb, Selma

Best Adapted Screenplay
It's quite weird that Whiplash is being considered an Adapted Screenplay, when the short film was made from a slice of the feature's script to show Chazelle's potential, but there you have it.  Should snag a nomination anyway.  If the writers couldn't recognize Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master, not sure they'll find room for Inherent Vice.

Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Nick Hornby, Wild
Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game

Alternate: Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice

Best Cinematography
Here's where my commentary pretty much stops.

Roger Deakins, Unbroken
Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Robert D. Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Bradford Young, Selma

Alternate: Hoyte van Hoytema, Interstellar

Best Editing
My risky prediction here is The Grand Budapest Hotel, but I'm really expecting it to do well.  Probably one of the nomination leaders.

Sandra Adair, Boyhood
Kirk Baxter, Gone Girl
Douglas Crise and Stephen Mirrione, Birdman
Tom Cross, Whiplash
Barney Pilling, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Alternate: William Goldenberg, The Imitation Game

Best Production Design
Hard to not predict either of the front-runners here, but this category doesn't tend to favor modern day-set films.  I suppose Birdman could make it in for the fine detail of its sprawling backstage world.

The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Alternate: Birdman

Best Visual Effects
How sad that this is the only category the final Hobbit movie might make a showing, and it doesn't even deserve to.  Lord of the Rings, it has not been.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Transformers: Age of Extinction

Alternate: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Best Costume Design
Colleen Atwood, Into the Woods
Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Anushia Nieradzik, Belle
Steven Noble, The Theory of Everything
Sammy Sheldon, The Imitation Game

Alternate: Jacqueline Durran, Mr. Turner

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Even with only seven films to choose from, this is a tough category.  Genre movies can make it in here (such as The Wolfman), but the prestige fare seems like it would attract more attention.  I'm going to predict that this branch will be divided on Steve Carell's prosthetic nose, letting Guardians of the Galaxy sneak in over Foxcatcher.

The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Theory of Everything

Alternate: Foxcatcher

Best Sound Mixing
You can just skip these ones if you want. No idea what I'm doing here.

American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Whiplash

Alternate: Boyhood

Best Sound Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
Godzilla
Interstellar
Whiplash

Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game
Johann Johannsson, The Theory of Everything
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Gone Girl
Hans Zimmer, Interstellar

Alternate: Mica Levi, Under the Skin

Best Original Song
This category is so fucked up.  There were two nominees a few years ago.  But the rules have changed so there will be five nominees from now on.

"Big Eyes," Big Eyes
"Everything is Awesome," The LEGO Movie
"Glory," Selma
"Lost Stars," Begin Again
"Miracles," Unbroken

Best Documentary Feature
In keeping with tradition, there should be a good mix of important topical docs and more enjoyable, emotional fare, too.

Citizenfour
Keep On Keepin' On
Last Days in Vietnam
Life Itself
The Overnighters

Alternate: Virunga

Best Animated Feature
The animation branch normally makes way for at least one out-of-the-way nominee, and I'm banking on The Tale of Princess Kaguya being too good to pass up, though it hasn't made as much of a show this season as The Wind Rises did last year.  Likely because Takahata's name doesn't have the same cache as Miyazaki's.

Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Alternate: Song of the Sea

Best Foreign Language Film
Force Majeure
Ida
Leviathan
Tangerines
Wild Tales

Alternate: Timbuktu

Best Animated Short
From this point on, it's literally just random guesswork, since I haven't seen any shorts, save Feast.

Coda
Feast
Footprints
A Single Life
Symphony No. 42

Best Live-Action Short
I could be making all these titles up, and you would have no idea.  (But they're real.)

Aya
Butter Lamp
My Father's Truck
SLR
Summer Vacation

Best Documentary Short
No one's even reading at this point.  What a waste of time.

Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
One Child
Our Curse
White Earth