Oscar Predictions

We're only a couple days away from Hollywood's biggest night, and as such, it's time to guess what the Academy is going to do.  This is a particularly fun year to predict, because a number of the big races - including Best Picture - are up in the air.  Boyhood was the critical darling all season, racking up award after award, taking the Golden Globe, and then later the BAFTA.  But Birdman swept the guilds, which indicated widespread support across the industry.

That Birdman is so beloved is no surprise.  It's a technical marvel and an actors' showcase, so it appeals to multiple branches of the Academy (including the massive actors block).  More importantly, it's about the industry, and in recent years, movies about movies and movie-makers have done well, with The Artist and Argo both taking home trophies for Best Picture.  That the Oscars are used to honor movies about the people who make them is only appropriate; after all, it's basically a night for a bunch of millionaires to pat each other on the back and swap golden statues.

Plus, Birdman revolts against the current trends in Hollywood of hollow celebrity and blockbuster noise.  This year, the expanded Best Picture field didn't find room for any mainstream blockbusters save American Sniper, which is still considered prestigious with Clint Eastwood in the director's chair and Bradley Cooper starring.  It's the only one of the bunch that has really broken out with the public, which I'm sure the show's producers are thankful for.  Maybe people will tune in to see if it'll take home some hardware.  It could win for sound or, in a bizarre upset, for Best Actor.  Cooper hasn't been in the mix up until this point, so it's hard to gauge whether he can challenge Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton for the win.

There will probably be some upsets.  What I keep coming back to is that the majority often follows its collective heart rather than its head.  Birdman seems too cold and calculated to be the majority pick; it doesn't have characters you can love, however fun and interesting they are to watch.  That's why I have to stick with Boyhood as the top winner.  It's possible there could be a split as there has been the last two years, with the more technically dazzling movie taking Best Director.  But in this case, it's hard to argue which of the two presumed front-runners is the more technically dazzling: the one that filmed for twelve years or the one constructed to look like a single take.  My guess: if there's a split, Boyhood takes Picture and Birdman gets Director.  But I think it's more likely one or the other takes both.

We won't really know until those categories are announced.  Maybe if Boyhood loses editing, it'll signal its loss.  Or if it wins Original Screenplay (where the race is likely between The Grand Budapest Hotel and Birdman), that could mean it'll win.  Of course, Hugo was racking up win after win its year, only to lose to The Artist in the major categories.

My heart rule carries over to predicting a couple other upsets, too.  I think Big Hero 6 wins over presumed frontrunner How to Train Your Dragon 2.  It has Disney behind it.  It's fun and colorful and sweet and makes you cry (at an event honoring all the nominees in this category last night, the brief Big Hero 6 clip shown had me welling up all over again).  And it's original.  As good as HTTYD2 is, it treads a lot of the same ground as its predecessor, which didn't win in this category four years ago.

Similarly, I don't see Citizenfour winning Best Documentary, though it's the best of the bunch.  Its politics may be off-putting to some voters, while its claustrophobic setting may bore others.  Virunga focuses on a cause that's easier for everyone to support (who doesn't want to protect the gorillas?), while Finding Vivian Maier is the sort of fascinating, entertaining movie that's in line with the last couple winners.  The rules for this category have changed, though, allowing voters to chime in regardless of if they've seen all the nominees.  This could play in Virguna's favor, as it's the most accessible (it's streaming on Netflix for those who haven't seen it).

The race I'm having the hardest time with is Best Foreign Language Film.  Ida has been the presumed frontrunner most of the season, but I wonder if it might be too simple and somber for voters.  Its additional nomination for cinematography certainly bodes well, though.  Leviathan won the equivalent trophy at the Golden Globes, but such a bleak movie is unlikely to win here.  Wild Tales could very well spoil, and I'm tempted to predict it; it's raucously funny, entertaining, insightful, and original.  That I haven't seen Timbuktu and Tangerines makes the call that much harder.  I'm leaning toward Ida, but wouldn't be surprised to be wrong on this count.

Other categories are set in stone, including three of the acting categories and...that's kind of it.  This should be a really exciting night.

Below, find my predictions, followed by who I'll be cheering for.

Predictions
Best Picture: Boyhood
Best Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Original Screenplay: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Best Film Editing: Sandra Adair, Boyhood
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6
Best Documentary: Virunga
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Costume Design: Colleen Atwood, Into the Woods
Best Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Mixing: American Sniper
Best Sound Editing: Birdman
Best Original Score: Johann Johannson, The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You," Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
Best Live-Action Short: The Phone Call
Best Animated Short: Feast
Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

What I'm Cheering For
Best Picture: Boyhood
Best Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Original Screenplay: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Best Film Editing: Sandra Adair, Boyhood
Best Cinematography: Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Animated Feature: The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Best Documentary: Citizenfour
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Costume Design: Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Song: "Everything is Awesome," The LEGO Movie
Best Live-Action Short: The Phone Call
Best Animated Short: Feast
Best Documentary Short: Joanna