The State of the Race: Best Animated Feature

Like many film fans, I love awards season, especially when Oscar nominations roll around.  It's hard to talk about most categories at this point, because so many of the biggest Oscar contenders have yet to see the light of day (or have only seen the light of festivals and such), but the animated race is already likely 2/3 of the way tied up, so it's easier to discuss with some degree of certainty.  Or at least a lesser degree of guesswork.

Sadly, it looks like there won't be enough eligible films to allow a field of five contenders, so I'm operating on the assumption that this year will return to three nominees in this category, as opposed to five last year.  (There have to be 16 eligible films for there to be five nominees.)

The Sure Things

Toy Story 3 - One of the best reviewed movies of the year, Toy Story 3 will surely win the Oscar for animation, as most Pixar films do.  It's funny, exciting, and one of the most emotional films of the year - multiple accounts detailed the tear-inducing effect the film had on grown men.  The Academy loves movies that tug on the heartstrings (a truth most often demonstrated in the Best Foreign Film category), so there's no doubt Toy Story 3 will reign supreme on the big night.  The billion dollar box office take certainly doesn't hurt, either; that kind of number cannot be ignored.

The only question is how many other nominations the film will garner.  It's a shoo-in for Best Picture, Best Original Song, and Best Adapted Screenplay.  There's also a chance it will be up for Best Original Score and the sound awards; Pixar tends to make an appearance in at least one sound category every year (usually for sound editing).  Is there any chance Lee Unkrich will become the first Best Director nominee for directing an animated film?  Nope.  But a guy can dream.

How to Train Your Dragon - How To Train Your Dragon came out of nowhere, surprising critics and audiences with its charm and beauty.  For me personally, it represented a conversion experience.  Even after Avatar, I wasn't sold on 3-D, but the flight scenes in Dragon took my breath away.  Beyond the stunning visuals and wonderful voicework, the story is great and the action is exciting.

As far as competing in other categories, the most likely additional nomination would be for Best Original Score.  John Powell's strings-heavy orchestrations are just as beautiful as the visuals and deserve recognition.  Any major nominations could only come if the next few months brought almost nothing but disappointment.  I don't see that happening.

Possible

Despicable Me - Surprisingly enough, Despicable Me, a new franchise, bested the fourth Shrek (at least domestically) - not only at the box office, but with critics, too.  Despicable Me has a great mix of comedy and heart, but with only one spot up for grabs, it could easily lose out to something with a bit more depth.  Were the field expanded to five, it would be a certainty, but since we're looking at only three nominees, it's hard to say at this point.

Impossible

Shrek Forever After - Or is it Shrek The Final Chapter?  Murky marketing campaign aside, the fourth Shrek failed to impress anybody.  It's a tired fairy tale take on It's a Wonderful Life that relies too heavily on pop culture references and licensed music.  This series wore out its welcome two movies ago, and there's no way it will make an appearance as a nominee.

Unknown

Tangled - The trailer is underwhelming, yes, but Disney returned to form last year with the phenomenal Princess and the Frog, so it's hard not to have high hopes for the first CG princess outing.  With music from Alan Menken and a style that brings watercolor-esque visuals to 3-D, Tangled could prove that Disney Animation is here to stay (again), and not only because of Pixar.  Even if the film misses out on the animation race, it will likely be represented in both of the music categories; it could even possibly rack up multiple nominations for Best Original Song.

The Illusionist - From the director of The Triplets of Belleville comes another gorgeous animated feature, this time about a magician.  Perhaps the strongest contender for the third spot; only its inevitably low box office could hurt it, though that factor seems to matter less here than in other categories.

Megamind - It doesn't look that terribly great, but like Tangled, I'm willing to give Megamind the benefit of the doubt.  Brad Pitt, Tina Fey, Will Ferrell, and Jonah Hill give Megamind some major star power, but that won't help its chances if the movie itself is a dud.

Alpha and Omega - Just kidding.  This movie looks like utter crap.  But it's animated crap, so I guess it deserves to at least be listed here... or maybe it doesn't.

So basically, I'm expecting Toy Story 3, How To Train Your Dragon, and The Illusionist to get nominated, with Toy Story 3 winning easily.  If there are enough eligible movies to warrant an expanded field, I'd add Despicable Me and Tangled to my list.