The State of the Race: Best Documentary Feature

When it comes to the Oscars, the documentary race is one of the hardest to predict.  The Academy rarely nominates documentaries that are big hits with the public, though there are a few instances of cross-overs, such as March of the Penguins and, to a much lesser degree, last year's winner, The Cove.  It's a bit easier to predict which movies will make the shortlist: those 15 films normally include commercial hits and the typically more-serious eventual contenders.  Here's what the race looks like now:

Safe Bets


I won't even say "Sure Things" because this race is so hard to call, but I'd be shocked if two docs didn't make it onto the final ballot: Inside Job and Waiting for "Superman." 

I've seen Waiting for "Superman" twice now, and it's an instance of documentary film-making at its best.  It has an emotional aspect that will appeal to Academy voters and the film itself is technically and stylistically sound.  Even the cinematography is beautiful in many instances.  Plus, the film is getting people talking.  Even though the most popular documentaries don't always make it into the awards race, when it has an agenda, that certainly helps.  Just look at An Inconvenient Truth; Food, Inc.; and The Cove.  This movie, like those, has a message, but it also has a strong narrative element (a la 2008's winner, Man on Wire), thanks to the adorable kids the filmmakers follow.

Inside Job has been generating huge buzz following the festival circuit and garnering glowing reviews from all around.  Right now, it looks like it's the doc to beat.  It's timely, masterfully made, and, according to one review, it makes its complicated subject matter (the recent economic collapse) easy to understand.  I'll get a chance to see it in a few weeks and I can't wait.

Strong Contenders


Restepo follows a platoon of soldiers in Afghanistan as they hold a crucial strategic valley.  It garnered glowing reviews and could benefit from The Hurt Locker's Best Picture win: this is sort of like the "true story" side of it.  At the same time, political/military movies often lack large presences at the Oscars, so this one could go either way.

Exit Through the Gift Shop should be a strong contender, but I'm placing it here more out of hope than expectation.  It has gotten some of the year's best reviews, and for good reason: it's a fascinating look at the world of street art, opening audience's eyes to what graffiti is (and more importantly, what isn't mere graffiti).  It was a crowd-pleaser, but it was also a superbly-told tale that is surprising and exciting.  I know I'd celebrate a nomination.

Sadly, it seems that Countdown to Zero could make an appearance.  It's a film that's more-or-less designed to scare everyone about the possibility of nuclear war.  It's not that the subject matter is unimportant, but the film is rather empty: it's repetitive and seems keener on creating fear than providing any useful information.  Since it has an important purpose, it could make it onto the ballot, though its lukewarm reception hopefully reflects Academy members' attitudes toward it, too.

Could-Be Contenders


The Oscars are a time for the Hollywood elite to get together and pat each other on the backs for all the good works and big paychecks of the previous year.  So it seems possible that some Hollywood-focused docs could make it onto the ballot, namely, Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work and Waking Sleeping Beauty. 

The former is a hilarious but touching look at one of the hardest-working women in show business.  Rivers gave full access to her (sometimes) busy schedule, and the honesty is refreshing and certainly elevated Rivers in my opinion.  It was a hit when it came out, and Academy members who are friends of Rivers may appreciate the film and reward it (and thus, in a way, reward her).

Waking Sleeping Beauty is one of the highlights of the year for me.  It takes a look at how Disney animation got back on track after The Black Cauldron, going on to make minor hits like The Great Mouse Detective before emerging into its heyday with The Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King.  It's an interesting story and the movies the film celebrates are classics - not to mention the fact that most of them are Oscar winners, themselves.  The film resonated with me similarly to how Every Little Step did last year, and that film made the shortlist but failed to be nominated.

Should-Be Contenders

Two other documentaries stand out to me as being among the year's best, but it's unlikely either will make it to the Big Night.  The first, Catfish, has generated quite a bit of buzz thanks to its mysterious plot and what it says about social networking.  It's a fascinating documentary that plays something like a thriller-romance, and the payoff is as satisfying as it is surprising.  It's likely too mainstream (what a weird word for a documentary) to even make it onto the shortlist, but I'd be thrilled to be proven wrong.

A Film Unfinished, on the other hand, seems like typical Oscar fare: it deals with World War II.  However, the film isn't even a blip on the radar, despite its great reviews and how well-made the film is.  If its studio puts forth any effort to get screeners into Academy members' hands, it would definitely be a contender, but as it is, it seems a more appropriate title might be A Film Forgotten.