Oscar Nomination Predictions

As all you movie lovers know, tomorrow morning the Oscar nominations will be announced.  Sadly, I'll be in class during the live broadcast, so for the first time in three or four years, I'll have to wait to find out what names were called.  It's incredibly sad, and I've heavily considered skipping class, but I'm deciding to be a responsible student on this occasion.

In previous posts I've delved deeper into what I think will happen in the major categories, as well as in the animation and documentary categories.  While many of my predictions remain unchanged, I have had second thoughts regarding some choices, which I will address as I go along.

To quote the Joker, "And here... we... go."

Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone


I still stand by this line-up for the night's biggest race.  The Town could be a spoiler, with Winter's Bone being my prediction for the most likely to lose its spot.  However, with its surefire noms for Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay, it seems unlikely.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit


Again, I'm sticking to my guns with this one, although the potential spoiler (who would take the Coens' spot) wasn't even on my radar before: David O. Russell for The Fighter.  After netting a DGA nod, it may be foolish to bet against him, but the Academy loves the Coens, so I think they'll get in for their superb work with True Grit.  I can certainly see the flip side though: the Coens have reaped much Oscar love in the past, so maybe it's time to people this category with some fresher faces.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine


This is one of the hardest line-ups to call.  A lot of pundits are maintaining that Robert Duvall is a strong contender for his work in Get Low, but I feel that that film has been all but forgotten (and not undeservedly so; it was like a rural Tuesdays With Morrie).  Others still doubt that Gosling will get the fifth slot, since that would put too many young actors into the running, but I don't think that argument holds much water.  The spoiler here, who would get Gosling's slot, is Javier Bardem for Biutiful, but I feel like that film hasn't been as widely-seen as Blue Valentine.

Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine


The Best Actress race is unusually strong this year, making it one of the most exciting races to look at.  This line-up is pretty conservative, with lots of potential spoilers, including Julianne Moore for The Kids Are All Right and Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit.  I think Steinfeld will pop up in the Supporting Actress category, though she could follow in Kate Winslet's footsteps and get upgraded by the Academy.  Either way, I think Steinfeld will definitely get nommed for her great work.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech


John Hawkes is my risky bet here; a more conservative guess would be Jeremy Renner for The Town, but I really want to believe that Hawkes will get recognized for his fantastic turn as Teardrop.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit


In my previous predictions, I pondered HBC being overlooked because her performance in The King's Speech isn't substantial enough, but after its PGA win, I can't wager against Tom Hooper's regal tale.  It seems Animal Kingdom will be nomination-less, as Jacki Weaver was its best chance to be recognized.

Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech


My jaw will be on the ground if this isn't the line-up.  I guess Blue Valentine would be the spoiler?  I would die (in a good way) if Four Lions found its way into the mix.


Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone


I feel like this is a really easy race to call, but that might mean I'm stupid.  The spoilers here are The Town and The Ghost Writer, which I think might've been released too early in the year to get the recognition its pedigree might otherwise garner.


Best Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3


I wish there were room for Tangled to get in, and if The Illusionist somehow misses the cut, I think Disney's latest lovely fairy tale will take its place.  Doubtful, though.

Best Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for "Superman"


Feeling pretty good about these; Client 9 would be my predicted spoiler.  Of course, this is a hard race to call since I'm unfamiliar with so many of the films on the shortlist.  Ah well.

Best Foreign Film
Biutiful
Dogtooth
Incendies
In a Better World
Tambien la Lluvia

Again, I'm unfamiliar with these films, so I'm going off what I've read and heard.  Most of my favorite foreign films were either eligible last year (A Prophet, The Secret in Their Eyes) or not eligible in this category (Mother, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo).

Best Cinematography
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

In a perfect world, The American would get recognized over the weird far-left/right compositions of The King's Speech, but I doubt it will happen that way.

Best Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Social Network


Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

This is a weird category to predict The Social Network for, but I think general admiration for the film will carry it into most of the races.

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Tron Legacy


This is a tough category to call, especially considering how off some of the past winners have been (The Golden Compass, anyone?).  I'm leaving off Iron Man 2 and Hereafter, both worthy of recognition in their own rights.

Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
The Fighter
The Way Back


Best Original Score
127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network


Best Original Song
"Coming Home," Country Strong
"I See the Light," Tangled
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"Shine," Waiting for "Superman"
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me," Burlesque


Best Costumes
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King's Speech
True Grit


Best Sound Mixing
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit


Best Sound Editing
The Fighter
Inception
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit


Honestly, just kind of guessing with the sound awards; it's hard for a non-professional to really differentiate between the two and recognize the jobs best done.  Pixar is always a contender though, and I expect some of the other front-runners will also be represented.  Chances are I'll be way off in a lot of the technical categories, but the surprises are where the fun lies.  There are certainly a few surprises I'd like to hear tomorrow:

-Danny Boyle for Best Director
-Julianne Moore for Best Actress
-Tangled for Best Animated Feature
-Scott Pilgrim vs. The World for Best Adapted Screenplay
-Four Lions for Best Original Screenplay

Of course, these choices, and many others, will be represented when I go all-out with my choices for the best of the year (in mid-to-late February).  Though I'm just one guy, I make a list of nominees and all that, complete with categories that would feel more at home at the People's Choice Awards or the MTV Movie Awards.  Should be fun.

Happy predicting, friends!