Then came the guilds. After being largely ignored by critics' groups, The King's Speech rebounded in a big way, winning the PGA, DGA, and SAG (it would've won the WGA as well, had it been eligible), thus making it the obvious front-runner, and thereby making anyone predicting something else to win a fool. I am a fool.
Perhaps it's wishful thinking. Maybe I'm putting my faith in the Academy (or pretending to, at least). It could be a case of thinking that preferential balloting can right a wrong that would easily be committed in years without the voting system in place, or that the younger Academy members will rally behind a film that represents our generation better than any other this year, or any year. Whatever my reason - I guess it's some mixture of those mentioned above - I just can't bring myself to predict The King's Speech for the win. Doing so would make me feel like I'm giving up on the best movie of the year, and I refuse to do that. The Social Network is too great to lose, at least in my eyes. The Academy surely realizes that The King's Speech is, at its core, pure Oscar bait, and though some will shrug it off and commend it for being such succulent bait, others must be feeling fatigue, and those voters hopefully will rally behind a movie that is utterly timely and timeless.
Most pundits agree that there will be a Picture/Director split, but there are some (such as USA Today and Sasha Stone over at Awards Daily) who insist that a safer bet is choosing either The King's Speech or The Social Network for the night's two biggest awards. Personally, I don't see David Fincher losing director. He's one of the best working in Hollywood today, and this is his second nomination in three years (he was previously up for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), so he seems ripe for the win. Plus, the direction in The Social Network is so much more key to its success than Tom Hooper's work in The King's Speech, which is more about its acting than anything else. The Social Network represents a film where every aspect lends to its overall strength, and I'm hoping (and perhaps stupidly predicting) that these disparate, harmonious elements will be justly rewarded Sunday night. (I'm not sure if David Fincher's likelihood of winning is at all affected by the fact that he has a strong chance of being up again next year for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. I'm going to guess Academy voters are more concerned with the past than the future.)
How can The Social Network pull an upset, you ask? (How sad is it that the film winning would be considered an upset, I ask?) The key to its possible success is the preferential ballot system, in which every Academy member's vote will eventually count for either the winner or the runner-up. Basically, each voter ranks the Best Picture nominees (this system isn't used in any other category) from their favorite to least favorite. The votes for the least-chosen film are then redistributed according to their #2 picks, and so on and so forth until one movie has 50% + 1 votes. My thinking is that The King's Speech will have a lot of #1 votes and will probably start as the winner, but those who don't pick it as their favorite film may rank it toward the bottom of the ballot, due to Oscar bait fatigue, insurance of its not winning, etc. Of course, this scenario could just be a figment of my extremely hopeful imagination.
With these thoughts, whims, and dreams in tow, I predict that The Social Network will win Best Picture, and David Fincher will win Best Director.
The acting categories are phenomenally easier to call, with the leads all but neatly tied up with a bow. Colin Firth will easily win Best Actor, thanks to the nuance of the performance, the general love for the film, and his overall body of work (including his previous nomination last year for A Single Man). Natalie Portman is on track to win Best Actress for her stunning work in Black Swan, though Annette Bening is a threat because she's so overdue for an Oscar, and may not have as many nominations ahead of her as the younger Portman. Again, it's a question of the Academy weighing the past and future into their decisions for today's crop of films and performances.
On the supporting side of things, some are predicting a Geoffrey Rush upset, but I don't see that happening. Christian Bale has been playing things exactly right this awards season; had he committed some misstep, he might lose Best Supporting Actor, but he hasn't, so he should be rewarded for his great work in The Fighter. For Best Supporting Actress, it's a bit tougher to call. Melissa Leo's self-campaigning probably hurt her with some voters and gained her points with others, probably creating a neutral net gain/loss/whatever. I'm going to wager that the Academy rewards a newcomer (a la Dreamgirls' Jennifer Hudson) and picks Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. Her performance is more lead than supporting, which should help her eke out a win over Leo. Plus, it's one of the few categories where Grit can be rewarded, and Leo is competing with costar Amy Adams, so they may cancel each other out.The screenplay categories are simple: The King's Speech will win Best Original Screenplay and The Social Network will win Best Adapted Screenplay. Any other outcome would be shocking, and in the case of Original Screenplay, would point to a King's Speech loss for Best Director and Picture.
The technical categories should be split up among the various Best Picture nominees, for the most part. I suspect Inception will win for Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Visual Effects, and Best Art Direction. The last is hardest to predict, as Alice and Wonderland might take it.
The Social Network should easily win for Best Film Editing: it's simply the best in the category. Roger Deakins will probably take home his first Oscar for Best Cinematography for True Grit. He's one of the best cinematographers in the business, and the Academy should be glad to finally reward him for his fine work.
Best Original Song will probably go to "If I Rise" from 127 Hours, though it's not exactly a great song. A. R. Rahman won in the category two years ago and will probably repeat. Also, it's the only category 127 Hours really has a prayer of winning in. A Tangled win would make me squeal with joy. I'm thinking The Social Network will win Best Original Score (this is a last-minute change from Inception).
Best Costumes should go to Academy favorite Colleen Atwood for Alice in Wonderland (again, pending the lack of The King's Speech sweeping). I'm predicting The Wolfman to take Best Make-up, if only because there's so much of it. The shorts categories are notoriously hard to predict, as I learned last year, so this year I'm sticking to my favorites: Wish 143 for Best Live-Action Short, Day & Night for Best Animated Short, and Poster Girl for Best Documentary Short. Day & Night would be Pixar's first win in the category in nine years, so it seems about time for them to get another trophy for their smaller work.
Inside Job's importance should allow it to win Best Documentary over Exit Through the Giftshop, though the latter is more deserving and would lead to a more interesting show. Banksy has his fans in Hollywood, so he could win, but this category usually celebrates films that tackle important issues, and the economy trumps street art in that respect.
Toy Story 3 wins for Best Animated Feature. Period.
Many think Biutiful will win Best Foreign Film because it has an additional nomination (Javier Bardem for Best Actor), but it's far too dark to suit the Academy's taste, especially in this category, where many members don't cast a vote. I'll go with Golden Globe winner In a Better World, which seems more in line with the generally emotional winners in this category (think Departures).
In summary:
Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Best Editing: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Art Direction: Inception
Best Costumes: Alice in Wonderland
Best Make-up: The Wolfman
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Original Score: The Social Network
Best Original Song: "If I Rise," 127 Hours
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Animated Short: Day & Night
Best Live-Action Short: Wish 143
Best Documentary Short: Poster Girl
Best Documentary: Inside Job
Best Foreign Film: In a Better World
No comments:
Post a Comment