Golden Globe Predictions

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association will announce the Golden Globe nominees bright and early tomorrow morning, and with how all over the place this season has been so far, it's a tough field to call.  Making things a bit easier are the HFPA's habit of celebrity worship and the division of categories into Drama and Comedy/Musical.

Here's what I'm expecting to hear:

Best Picture - Drama
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

The HFPA doesn't worry about having a consistent number of Best Picture nominees, so the drama category gets stretched sometimes.  I think this year could be such a case.  If they decide to only nominate five movies, I would knock Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (as it's still a question mark) and The Ides of March, which hasn't caught on as much as the other contenders.

Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Crazy, Stupid, Love.
Midnight in Paris

I'm not sure if there's any official word on which side The Artist falls, but I imagine it will be put on the Comedy side if only to make room for all the heavy-hitting dramas.  Having not seen it, I don't know how accurate this label is.  All in all, it looks like this will be the strongest Comedy/Musical line-up we've seen in years.  Hopefully no Tourist-esque fillers this year.  Win Win and The Muppets are my alternates.

Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Stephen Spielberg, War Horse
Tate Taylor, The Help

The HFPA has the chance to nominate some of the best directors working today, and of all time, including Cecil B. DeMille honorees Spielberg and Scorsese.  Because of The Help's tremendous critical and commercial success, I suspect it will be getting lots of attention here.

Best Actor - Drama
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Michael Fassbender's turn in Shame seems like it might be too much for the HFPA, although they might want to recognize him as he's rising to be a huge, omnipresent star.  Ryan Gosling is arguably more impressive in Drive, but his turn in The Ides of March is more palatable.  Gary Oldman seems like the longest shot here, but he's received so many great notices - even if he hasn't been mentioned much by critics' groups - that I think he should pop up here.

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Steve Carrell, Crazy, Stupid, Love.
Robert Downey, Jr., Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris

Again, an unusually strong bunch of contenders for Best Actor here.  RDJ won for the first Sherlock Holmes, so I think he'll get another nomination, although it'll be tough for anyone to top Dujardin.  Paul Giamatti is my alternate for Win Win (I basically don't know whether it will be pretty strongly recognized or totally ignored).

Best Actress - Drama
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

I'm not expecting anything surprising here.  The shake-up would come if Williams' performance was put in the Comedy/Musical side, but I'm not sure if/why it would.  If so, Rooney Mara or Elizabeth Olsen could sneak in.

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Mila Kunis, Friends With Benefits
Julia Roberts, Larry Crowne
Emma Stone, Crazy, Stupid, Love.
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids

Even though Larry Crowne was one of the year's most heinous stinkers, Julia Roberts is a huge star and should have no trouble being nominated (Tom Hanks could, too, but he has a tougher field to compete with).  She was recognized for the barely-seen but very fun Duplicity, and I see no reason the HFPA wouldn't nominate her again here - they want her at the party.

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Ryan Gosling, Crazy, Stupid, Love.
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Ryan Gosling could be a double nominee if he gets recognized for his hilarious supporting turn in Crazy, Stupid, Love.  Of course, he could just as easily fail to get a single nomination.  Max Von Sydow is a shot in the dark, but it would be nice for him and Plummer to represent the older generation of actors.

Best Supporting Actress
Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

I'm going out on a limb with Bullock, but she's a big star, so I'm giving her the edge over Berenice Bejo for The Artist.

Best Screenplay
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash, The Descendants
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball

Alternate: Eric Roth for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

Best Animated Feature Film
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Best Foreign Language Film
La Havre
In the Land of Blood and Honey
Mysteries of Lisbon
A Separation
The Skin I Live In

A whole lot of uninformed guesswork here.

Best Original Score
Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Alexandre Desplat, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Howard Shore, Hugo
John Williams, War Horse

Best Original Song
"Hello, Hello," Gnomeo and Juliet
"Life's a Happy Song," The Muppets
"The Living Proof," The Help
"Man or Muppet," The Muppets
"So Long," Winnie the Pooh

In other words, Disney dominance.

I'm excited to see how spot-off my predictions are.  It's always fun to see how things turn out, and with the Globes, there are plenty of opportunities for nominations to come out of nowhere.  Hopefully there will be plenty to talk about in the morning - look for my reaction to the nominations shortly after they're announced.