The Directors Guild Nominations

The Directors Guild is perhaps the most important of the guilds when looking at how the Oscar race is going to shape up.  This year's line-up comes as a pleasant surprise.  In addition to the three locks - Martin Scorsese for Hugo, Alexander Payne for The Descendants, and Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist - Woody Allen and David Fincher scored nominations, for Midnight in Paris and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, respectively.  Allen was considered one of the likeliest to pick up a nod, alongside the likes of Steven Spielberg for War Horse and Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life.

Fincher's inclusion is a huge boon to Dragon Tattoo, which has been hit-and-miss throughout the awards season.  A lack of early screenings left the Swedish crime thriller out of contention for some groups, but the film has picked up traction, especially with the guilds, where it's been nominated by the PGA, WGA, and ADG, and for a pair of Golden Globes (for its score and Rooney Mara's performance).  At this point, a Best Picture nomination is all but a sure-thing, in a way that still eludes Bridesmaids despite all the guild love to comedy has received.  The Directors Guild just holds that much more weight, and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, despite its anal rape and grisly violence, is more up the Academy's alley than pooping in the middle of the street, as great as that is.

Plus, after Tom Hooper's inexplicable win over Fincher last year, it seems only right that he gets another nomination, though it's doubtful he'll pull out a win this year, either.  (If he does, it will be hard not to read the victory through an apologetic lens for The Social Network's loss.)

Malick's exclusion sadly suggests that The Tree of Life's Oscar prospects are all on the technical side of things.  The film is a shoo-in for cinematography, and may score nods for visual effects and sound, as well, but Best Director and Best Picture are likely out of reach.  Of course, a film as polarizing as the eternity-spanning family drama may have enough passionate support to muster up the necessary 250 #1 votes to make it into the Best Picture race.  One can hope.

Again, the nominees:

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo