Without further ado:
Best Picture
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
With the new rules in place, predicting nine nominees for Best Picture puts me at the high end of Oscar bloggers. Around the web, most predictors are ending up with seven or eight nominees. Of my list, Bridesmaids would be the first to be knocked off by most, then War Horse. Those are certainly the two films most likely to miss a nod, but each could (should) have enough support to make it into the big race.
Bridesmaids has scored with every guild except the DGA (where it never had a prayer anyway), which shows the film has tons of support. However, some of the guild nods come with an asterisk, as when there is a separate category for comedies, or a contemporary category for costume design. The nods are still significant, but maybe not as significant as one might hope (alas, Bridesmaids will not be nominated for its costumes). War Horse should sway some of the older Academy members to put it at #1 because it makes them cry, and it's a sprawling war movie that has Spielberg and John Williams yanking at the heartstrings with all their collective might. Not my cup of tea, but some Academy members are certainly thirsty for that sort of thing.
In the end, it's a three horse race between The Artist, fresh off its Producers Guild win and sure to dominate many other guilds, The Descendants, and Hugo. The others will have to be happy to be nominated.
Spoilers: The Tree of Life, Drive
Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Here, I'm sticking with the DGA nominees. There's certainly room for surprises here, but this seems like a strong enough lineup to stick with.
Spoilers: Tate Taylor, The Help; Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Popular opinion dictates that I leave Oldman out in lieu of Leonardo DiCaprio, but J. Edgar was so tepidly received that I think the film might be left out completely. Oldman has the "overdue" factor going for him in a way few actors do. With a career of great performances, he has somehow never received a single Oscar nomination. What better time to reward him than for his brilliant, subtle work in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy?
Spoilers: Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar; Ryan Gosling, Drive
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
It kills me to leave out all of my favorite performances of the year, but it's hard to argue with this lineup. It's been a banner year for actresses, so it's feasible one of these women (but who?) could be bumped in favor of Rooney Mara or Charlize Theron, but it's highly unlikely.
Spoilers: Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Von Sydow has barely shown up this award season, perhaps because his film has been so poorly received, but he's a veteran actor who has worked with some of the best directors of all time, and his performance in Stephen Daldry's 9/11 story is beautifully rendered, not to mention in line with The Artist's return to silent cinema.
Spoilers: Nick Nolte, Warrior; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Another tough one to call, and though Woodley missed a SAG nom, I think the Academy will choose to recognize a bright new talent over previous winner Janet McTeer.
Spoilers: Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Carey Mulligan, Shame
Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Ashgar Farhadi, A Separation
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Will Reiser, 50/50
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
There are plenty of strong screenplays in contention this year, but I think the Iranian drama A Separation will manage to edge out scripts from Diablo Cody and Tom McCarthy. It could even appear in the races for Best Picture and Best Director (though both are far less likely).
Spoilers: Diablo Cody, Young Adult; Tom McCarthy, Win Win
Best Adapted Screenplay
John Logan, Hugo
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash, The Descendants
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Tate Taylor, The Help
Steve Zaillian, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
This lineup is frustratingly safe, but it's hard to know which to bump, if any. As usual, a strong year for adapted work.
Spoilers: Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughn, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Eric Roth, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Best Editing
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Spoilers: Midnight in Paris, War Horse, The Help
Best Cinematography
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Tree of Life
Sadly, this may be the only race The Tree of Life makes it into, although it should be able to pull off a win, which makes it sting a little less.
Spoilers: War Horse, Drive
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