The nominees are:
Original Screenplay
50/50, Will Reiser
Bridesmaids, Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig
Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
Win Win, Tom McCarthy
Young Adult, Diablo Cody
Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants, Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Steve Zaillian
The Help, Tate Taylor
Hugo, John Logan
Moneyball, Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin
Documentary Screenplay
Better This World, Katie Galloway and Kelly Duane de la Vega
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front, Marshall Curry and Matthew Hamachek
Nostalgia for the Light, Patricio Guzman
Pina, Wim Wenders
Position Among the Stars, Hetty Naaijkens-Retel Helmrich, Leonard Retel Helmrich
Senna, Manish Pandey
Bridesmaids has hit all the guilds who have announced so far: SAG, PGA, WGA, and ADG (Art Directors Guild, for which it scored a nom in the Contemporary Film category). It's impossible to deny that the film is a major Oscar contender. The question is if it can garner enough #1 votes to make it into the Best Picture race. While it seems unlikely, it's clear that Bridesmaids has a lot of love, though that will likely still only translate into two Oscar nominations (Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress for Melissa McCarthy).
Of the other Original Screenplay nominees, only Midnight in Paris is a sure thing to make it to Oscar night, and is a likely winner here. The Artist will scoop up one of the other slots, leaving two slots to be filled by 50/50, Beginners, Win Win, Young Adult, and The Tree of Life, which doesn't stand much of a chance, as it isn't really a writers' movie - it's about the incredible direction.
The Academy's Adapted Screenplay category may line up exactly with what we have here, with War Horse (which, however you look at it, wasn't about the writing) Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (which seems to be getting lost in the shuffle) and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (which just hasn't managed to catch any heat) as the possible spoilers.
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