Oscar Predictions

Oscar night is, bar none, my favorite night of the year.  By the time it rolls around, all of us cinephiles and prognosticators and bloggers and such are pretty much sick of awards season.  Even when things start out with some excitement and unpredictability, as was the case this year, by the big night, there is little room for surprise.  Thus, I tend to post my predictions with a somewhat heavy heart and an eye toward the next year, when things might (but won't) be better.  Last year, I went out on a hopeful limb and predicted The Social Network would bounce back after being trounced in the guilds, but it was not to be.

This year, I won't be so foolhardy.  Nearly every category this year seems wrapped up in a neat little bow, meaning there won't be many moments to cheer.  At least we had a few of those last year.  That's not to say that Sunday night's winners are undeserving.  On the contrary, most of the films and performances that are destined to take home statues are very good, but certainly not the best.  But we all know that the Oscars aren't really about rewarding the best movies, or even the most popular movies.  There's a strange combination of politics, context, emotional pull, and groupthink that all intermingle and give us results that sometimes surprise in their accepted rightness (No Country For Old Men, The Hurt Locker) but more often go down as strange, but not quite inexplicable mistakes (Crash, The King's Speech).

Though I make these predictions with a sense of resignation, my fingers will be crossed that something, anything, interesting will happen.  Hell, if Glenn Close pulls an upset for Best Actress, I'll be thrilled - not because she's the most deserving, but because it would be so out of left field.  But the Oscars are about tying up the season in a neat little bow, striving for significance but only managing quaintness.

This onset of heightened cynicism is typical of Oscar weekend for me, but in a few months, I'll be looking at the new batch of movies with starry eyes and a feeling in my gut that this is the year they'll get it right.  But when Christopher Nolan fails yet again to get nominated for Best Director for The Dark Knight Rises*, I'll have to accept anew the reality of the Academy Awards.

Without further complaint, my predictions for this year's Oscars.  (Note: due to my lesser enthusiasm this year, I've not been as diligent in seeking out all the films, such as the live-action and documentary short films, meaning some of my guesses are based on hearsay and guesswork.  So don't blame me if these predictions cause you to lose your office pool.)

Best Picture
The Artist has this in the bag. Its closest competition is a sort of three-way race for second between Hugo, The Descendants, and The Help, but none of those movies have an actual chance of being the night's big winner.  It's strange, as it seems no one particularly wants The Artist to win, as enjoyable as it is, but fate or something has deigned that it must be so.
Will Win: The Artist
Should Win: The Tree of Life
Shouldn't Win: War Horse

Best Director
There are sometimes splits between Best Picture and Best Director, but it's rare.  Sometimes, the better movie has to settle for Best Director, as when Ang Lee won for Brokeback Mountain while Crash took home Best Picture.  This year, if that happens, Martin Scorsese will be taking home a well-deserved second Oscar for Hugo, but based on the DGA, Michel Hazanavicius should handily win this one in a mini Artist sweep.
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Should Win: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Best Actor
This is one of the races that isn't completely tied up.  George Clooney seemed like the favorite through most of awards season, but with Jean Dujardin taking home the SAG, things are a bit more interesting.  However, a SAG win doesn't always equal an Oscar win, and I think the Academy may spread the love by giving Clooney his first leading Oscar.
Will/Should Win: George Clooney, The Descendants

Best Actress
Many thought that The Iron Lady would bring Meryl her long-awaited third Oscar, but it looks like she will (happily) lose to her Doubt costar Viola Davis for her moving performance in The Help.  Personally, I'm a bit salty about it, as I consider Davis's role a supporting one, so her win will be akin to Kate Winslet's for The Reader in my mind.  I'd prefer to see Rooney Mara win for her incredible work in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.
Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Should Win: Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Best Supporting Actor
With Albert Brooks out of the running, there's not really anything standing in Christopher Plummer's way.  After a lengthy career, Plummer has been experiencing an amazingly prolific period, picking up great roles in films like The Last Station and Beginners, and he'll finally have an Oscar to show for it.  His top competition is fellow classic actor Max Von Sydow, whose moving work in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close can't hope to rise above the mixed reception the film as a whole received.
Will/Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress
Sometimes, when two actors or actresses from the same movie are nominated in the same category, people like to hypothesize that they'll split votes, letting some third party steal the win.  That doesn't really happen - just ask Melissa Leo, who won for The Fighter in this category over costar Amy Adams.  Octavia Spencer will win this one easily for her hilarious Minnie in The Help, much to my chagrin.  My greatest Oscar wish (perhaps because there's the slightest glimmer of possibility within it) is for Melissa McCarthy to upset.
Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Should Win: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Best Original Screenplay
Things are a bit interesting in this category.  If The Artist garners a lot of love from the Academy, a sweep could certainly include a win for Michel Hazanavicius's impressive screenplay.  However, with so many strong films in contention from many of the greatest filmmakers of all time, I think they're more likely to spread the love and award Woody Allen for his brilliant, witty writing.  Personally, I'd be thrilled to see Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo recognized for their beautiful, hilarious work on Bridesmaids; it's the rare comedy that gets better and better on repeat screenings.
Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Should Win: Bridesmaids

Best Adapted Screenplay
Another chance for the love to be spread, especially since The Artist isn't eligible in the category.  It's a race between Moneyball, The Descendants, and Hugo.  Some have floated the theory that Hugo might get a boost for being the work of a single screenwriter, but I think it's the least likely of the three to take home the trophy.  Moneyball has that rapid-fire Sorkin dialogue combined with a surprisingly moving depiction of a generally non-emotional world, while The Descendants benefits from its careful, unsentimental observation of familial grief.  My guess is The Descendants takes it, while Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy should be crowned for weaving such an intricate and thrilling tale into a limited runtime.
Will Win: The Descendants
Should Win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Instead of running through all the categories in such a thorough fashion, here's my complete list of predicted winners:

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, and Nat Faxon, The Descendants
Best Editing: The Artist
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Costumes: Lisy Cristi, Anonymous
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady
Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Original Score: Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Best Original Song: "Man or Muppet," The Muppets
Best Sound Mixing: Hugo
Best Sound Editing: War Horse
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Animated Feature Film: Rango
Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Best Documentary Short: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Best Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Live-Action Short: The Shore

Only hours remain until the show begins.  Happy watching, film friends.

*I really hope this doesn't happen.  But based on history, it seems like a distinct possibility.