Globes 2012: The Musical/Comedy Race

Most awards talk in the blogosphere (including here) is concerned with the Oscars, and only the Oscars, because the Oscars are prestigious and the Oscars matter and the Oscars never go to the right movies but maybe this year they will.  It's a strange fascination, but a nigh inevitable one for film aficionados like myself, and the grind can get a bit tiring.  That's why it's fun to step back sometimes and take a look at other awards shows, such as the Golden Globes, the Oscars' rowdy kid brother that cares more about having a few drinks and ogling the prettiest people in Hollywood.  Winning a Globe doesn't mean as much as winning an Oscar (whatever that even means), but by splitting the movie awards between Drama and Musical/Comedy, some movies that deserve but can't get Oscar love have the opportunity to bask in the spotlight, briefly.

Usually, the Musical/Comedy nominees at the Globes have little to no Oscar traction, though not always.  This year, nominees included The Artist, Midnight in Paris, and Bridesmaids, all of which garnered multiple Oscar nominations (including big wins for the first two).  But the year before saw the worst crop in recent memory, with The Kids Are All Right beating out stinkers like Burlesque, Alice in Wonderland, and... The Tourist (shudder).  This year, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the group of critics that hands out the awards, has the chance to honor some great movies.  But there are also some distractions that could steal spaces from more deserving, less visible candidates.

Let's take a look at the hierarchy that exists within the category, and how that hierarchy could play out this year.  These are the kinds of "comedies" and "musicals" that the HFPA likes to honor.  Why the quotes?  The definitions can be pretty loose sometimes, which could come into play this year.

1. Musicals - This one doesn't require much additional description.  Musicals used to be the hottest genre in Hollywood, and in the past decade or so, they've experienced a mild resurgence that has borne a few hits and a whole lot of misses.  The HFPA tends to favor musicals over stronger, more universally celebrated (and Oscar-honored) comedies.  For 2006 and 2007, Dreamgirls and Sweeney Todd beat Little Miss Sunshine and Juno, respectively.  The musicals went on to get some technical nominations at the Oscars (plus a pair of acting nods for Dreamgirls), while Little Miss Sunshine and Juno found their way into the Best Picture race and won for their screenplays.  Other recent winners include Moulin Rouge!, Chicago, and Walk the Line, while nominees have included The Phantom of the Opera, The Producers, Hairspray, Across the Universe, Mamma Mia!, Nine, and Burlesque.  Note that of all those nominees, only Hairspray met with widespread critical acclaim.  The rest received lukewarm to searingly bad notices.

How it comes into play this year: Even this far out, it looks like Les Miserables has this award on lockdown.  The first trailer for the film already has people screaming "Oscar!", and director Tom Hooper has some goodwill coming his way for having his actors sing live rather than lip-synch to pre-recorded music, a rarity in the genre.  A darker horse is Rock of Ages, which could get in because 1) it's a musical and 2) it has a fairly star-studded cast.  Tom Cruise received a Supporting Actor nod for his work in Tropic Thunder a few years ago, and he could repeat with his work here, which was definitely the bright spot of the movie.

Also, while "musical" is a pretty straightforward term, it sometimes gets stretched to include movies like Pride & Prejudice (for its dancing? Or maybe that got counted as a comedy? I'm still confounded) and musical biopics like Ray.  Thus, it's not too farfetched to imagine Magic Mike sneaking into the race.  It's a well-received movie from a respected director, and the performances are great.  Channing Tatum and Matthew McConaughey could both be looking at nominations, as well.

The liberal definition could also encompass Bernie, Richard Linklater's dark true story of an assistant funeral director (a brilliant Jack Black) who forms a strange relationship with one of the town's widows.  It's probably too small a film to gain traction, but the HFPA likes to nominate as many stars as possible, even if their movies aren't big hits (see Julia Roberts in Duplicity), so Black might get a well-deserved nod for Best Actor.  He at least deserves consideration for how gorgeous his voice is.

2. Indie Darlings - This group requires a little additional sussing out, as being a well-received indie isn't always enough.  Small movies that break out and make bank easily make it into the race.  Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, (500) Days of Summer, and The Kids Are All Right are good examples.  These are films that are undeniably good, and the sort of stuff that ought to be filling the category every year.  This is the category where some of my favorite filmmakers around get their due, like Woody Allen (Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Midnight in Paris), Jason Reitman (Thank You For Smoking, Juno), and, of course, Marc Webb, the man behind (500) Days of Summer and, more recently, The Amazing Spider-Man.  Note that of all the movies mentioned, only Thank You For Smoking failed to break out in a culturally phenomenal way.

How it comes into play this year: There are a few indie comedies that have a shot at making it into the Best Picture race at the Globes, but some very deserving films stand no chance.  Moonrise Kingdom may be the first Wes Anderson film to make it into the big race after an occasional nomination in other categories.  It's the director's most accessible film to date, easier to digest than some of his darker fare, and it's a money-making crowd-pleaser.  The HFPA is a bit more populist than the Academy, so it should make it in.

Ruby Sparks is another strong contender.  From the directors of Little Miss Sunshine, it's smart, funny, and could be a big hit for Fox Searchlight when it hits theaters later this month.  Not so lucky is Safety Not Guaranteed, one of my favorite films of the year, and one that, with a proper platform, could garner a lot of attention.  But it's too small, the cast isn't famous enough, and it won't reach enough eyes or have the campaign necessary to make it into the awards race.  With a mountain of luck, maybe it could snag a WGA nod, but even that's a very long long shot.  Other great indies like Damsels in Distress, Lola Versus, and Jeff, Who Lives at Home are non-contenders for the same reason (though they aren't necessarily as well-received as needed, anyways).

This is also where The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel could come into play, but I'm not sure it will be considered a comedy.  If it is, it could easily take one of the slots.  It has a cast of beloved actors (led by the wonderful Judi Dench) and it's been a huge success worldwide.

3. Harmless, Bordering Feel-Good Stuff - This is a hard category to name, but it becomes clear what I mean when you take a look at some of the representative films.  Meryl Streep tends to star in these movies, like The Devil Wears Prada, It's Complicated, and Julie & Julia.  Other examples: Big Fish, Love Actually, and Charlie Wilson's War.  These are the kinds of movies that are often quite good crowd-pleasers that appeal to middle-aged women or, more rarely, have almost a family appeal.  They usually aren't the most exciting nominees, but they're dependable spot-fillers, and certainly more desirable than some alternatives.

How it comes into play this year: The main contender in this group for 2012 is - you've got it - a Meryl Streep vehicle: Hope Springs.  The marital non-bliss therapy comedy looks like Globe-bait, if there is such a thing.  You've got Meryl doing her thing playing an everywoman, a couple solid costars, and a plot that is sure to bring in the 40+ crowd.  If you're going to bet on one thing for the Globes, bet that Streep will be getting yet another nomination this year.

4. R-Rated Comedies - This category used to basically be a descriptor of Group 2, but with Judd Apatow's influence in Hollywood, R-rated comedies don't have to have indie cred to make it to the Globes.  The Hangover's victory over (500) Days of Summer marked a declaration of the HFPA's interest in what makes money and appealing to popular tastes.  This is still something of a fledgling category, but it's on the rise, with other notable nominees including Borat, 50/50, and Bridesmaids, along with all the indies that dare to go a little darker.

How it comes into play this year: There are some strong contenders in this group, but it's hard to say if they'll gain enough traction to get nominated.  21 Jump Street has a number of boxes checked.  It's a huge hit, it's got some big stars, and it's a great, funny movie.  Perhaps most importantly: it has Channing Tatum, this year's It Boy.  He'll probably get a nomination for something, just as Ryan Gosling did last year.  While its spring release prevents 21 Jump Street from any sort of Oscar talk, the calendar doesn't mean much to the HFPA (In Bruges was nominated with a January release, but then again, it also got an Oscar nod for its screenplay).

Judd Apatow has never directed a movie to a Best Picture nomination, but that could change with This is Forty, his semi-sequel to Knocked Up (how that wasn't nominated, I don't know).  The question is if the movie will be funny enough; the trailer looks like it might be a little sappy-serious, a la Funny People.  Let's hope not.

Ted is doing gangbusters box office right now and could ride the wave of money (and good reviews) to a nomination, but I wonder if the film isn't a little too Seth MacFarlane to appeal to the HFPA.

Let's also hope The Dictator doesn't somehow get any sort of attention.  One of the year's worst movies.

5. The Dark Side - This is a rare species, but sometimes, the Globes honor movies that have an edge, the sort of movies that could never hope for mainstream appeal because they're too gritty or because they're genre films.  In Bruges got multiple nominations despite its gruesome action elements, and Red rode its star-studded cast to a nomination, as well.

How it comes into play this year: As I said, this sort of thing just doesn't really happen all that often.  So that means The Cabin in the Woods, the funniest movie of the year so far, has zero chance of pulling a nomination.  It's too horror to make it into the Comedy/Musical race, and as a genre film, it couldn't make it amongst the Dramas even if it were eligible.  Let's observe a moment of silence for one of my favorite movies of the year.

6. Star Gazing - This category doesn't actually pertain to the Best Picture race, but rather the acting categories, specifically on the Comedy/Musical side.  Regardless of how poorly received a comedy is, if it has big stars, they'll probably be nominated.  And in some unfortunate instances, the movie itself gets honored too.  This is how we explain nods for Kate Winslet and Jodie Foster for Carnage last year, Anne Hathaway and Jake Gyllenhaal for Love and Other Drugs the year before, and, of course, Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie in The Tourist (which also got a Best Picture nomination, to the horror of people with eyes and souls everywhere).

How it comes into play this year: The most likely nomination to come from this star obsession: Julia Roberts nominated for her role in Mirror Mirror.  Not necessarily a bad choice, but there will certainly be five worthier nominees.


So, with all this in mind, my way-too-early predictions for Best Picture - Comedy/Musical for this year's Golden Globes are (betting on six nominees, just because):

21 Jump Street
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Magic Mike
Moonrise Kingdom
Ruby Sparks

With a This is Forty kicker.

Time will tell.