Early tomorrow morning, the HFPA announces the nominations for this year's Golden Globes. Hard to believe we're already to that point in the season, but here we are. The Globes are sometimes hard to predict because of the category breaks (the Musical/Comedy side of things can get really weird); while the Best Picture, Actor, and Actress categories are divvied up, the Supporting categories are combined, usually with at least one nominee coming from the comedy side of things. The Best Screenplay category is just ridiculous, with a single category holding both Original and Adapted offerings. Why? Who knows.One important thing to keep in mind when predicting these: the HFPA loves stars, and wants them all to come to the party. Thus, Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie's nominations for The Tourist a couple years ago.
My best guesses at how tomorrow pans out:
Best Picture - Drama
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
The Best Picture - Drama category is rarely limited to only five nominees; back in 2007, there were seven. I'm going with six, but if a seventh makes the cut, I'd guess that Flight gets in on Denzel's star power.
Best Actor - Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
In a strange move, The Sessions is being pushed as a Drama, even though the movie is quite light-hearted, and over on the Musical/Comedy side of things, Hawkes would have a better chance of winning. With strong Best Actor contenders Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman over there, I guess it doesn't really matter. Their absence does make room for Jamie Foxx to get recognition for his strong turn in Django Unchained. Brad Pitt could also get in for Killing Them Softly.
Best Actress - Drama
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Emmanuel Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
This is a hard line-up to determine, because Hitchcock, like The Sessions, is being considered as a drama, so Helen Mirren could bump out one of these five (probably Riva or Wallis, since they aren't big stars). Keira Knightley is also in contention for Anna Karenina.
Best Picture - Musical/Comedy
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Magic Mike
Moonrise Kingdom
Ted
Silver Linings Playbook
There's no precedent for there being six nominees in this category, but I'm going out on a limb and predicting six anyways. If one of these doesn't make the cut, it'll likely be Ted, as all of the others have prestige (or, in Magic Mike's case, box office clout and a couple big stars). However, the HFPA likes recognizing big hits, and Ted is one of the biggest hits of the year. Other strong contenders here are This is Forty, Bernie, Pitch Perfect, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (if it's being considered a comedy), and 21 Jump Street. Yeah, this is a hard one to call. (Check out my way too early predictions from earlier this year for a breakdown of this category and to laugh at my totally overlooking Silver Linings Playbook.)
Best Actor - Musical/Comedy
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Another tough category to call. Tom Cruise could get in for his memorable turn in Rock of Ages (he got nommed for a similarly wild role in Tropic Thunder). Paul Rudd, Jared Gilman, and Channing Tatum are also possibilities. If The Perks of Being a Wallflower is considered a comedy, Logan Lerman could get in.
Best Actress - Musical/Comedy
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
Lots of all-time greats in contention here, with Dench, Streep, and Streisand all likely nominees. I'd think the HFPA might balance out all that established starpower with the Zoe Kazan for Ruby Sparks or Aubrey Plaza for Safety Not Guaranteed, but it's not likely. Julia Roberts could sneak in here for Mirror Mirror.
Best Supporting Actor
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
This category is an embarrassment of riches for the HFPA: lots of big stars to choose from. Russell Crowe could be a spoiler if Les Miserables scores as big as it very easily could. Or Javier Bardem for Skyfall. Or Christoph Waltz or Sameul L. Jackson for Django Unchained. Or...
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
I'd like to think Ann Dowd could get a surprise nomination here (akin to Viggo Mortensen's Best Supporting Actor nomination for A Dangerous Method last year), but it's unlikely. Nicole Kidman could snag a nomination for The Paperboy, as she did with the SAG this morning, and if she does, either Adams or Smith is probably out. Samantha Barks and Amanda Seyfried are also contenders for Les Miserables, as the HFPA loves them some musicals.
Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
I'm betting Ang Lee misses out here, since the lack of big stars may make Life of Pi less of a draw to the HFPA. Quentin Tarantino could be a spoiler.
Best Screenplay
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Chris Terrio, Argo
Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Patrick Doyle, Brave
Johnny Greenwood, The Master
John Williams, Lincoln
Behn Zeitlin and Dan Romer, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Original Song
"Learn Me Right," Brave
"Safe and Sound," The Hunger Games
"Skyfall," Skyfall
"Song of the Lonely Mountain," The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
"Suddenly," Les Miserables
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
Holy Motors
The Intouchables
A Royal Affair
Rust and Bone
Best Animated Feature Film
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph
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