Oscar Nominations: My Predictions

This is the first Oscar season in recent memory where so much is up in the air.  Usually, there are clear front-runners in nearly every category, and even the nominees in certain categories are all but set in stone.  Why, just two years ago, I was able to predict the Best Picture line-up in its entirety (the biggest question then was what got the tenth slot: Winter's Bone or The Town.)  With nearly every presumed contender sticking its landing this year, it's been harder to whittle the major categories down to their most likely nominees, so I expect I'll be quite off in many of my predictions.  But still, the guessing game is too fun to resist.

Best Picture
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild 
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I expect the Best Picture line-up to be filled this year, unlike last year, where there were nine nominees.  To get a nomination, a film must get at least 250 #1 votes on voters' ballots, meaning only films with a passionate fanbase can get in.  With such a strong cinematic crop this year, Academy members should be spreading the love.  I'm most going out on a limb in predicting The Master, since it's such a tough film to crack, but I think it'll get the respect vote that carried The Tree of Life into contention last year.  The most likely spoiler is The Impossible, which has many vocal fans (such as Angelina Jolie), and could bump out The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, or Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

This is perhaps the hardest category to predict, as so many previous nominees and winners stand to be nominated.  I'm continuing out on my limb for The Master, but recall that Terrence Malick made the cut last year.  I think the directors branch is likely to reward Paul Thomas Anderson for his incredible film.  He could easily lose out by Tom Hooper, Quentin Tarantino, or David O. Russell.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

The Best Actor category is all but narrowed down to six possibilities; the one I'm leaving off is John Hawkes for his work in The Sessions.  Joaquin Phoenix is probably the most vulnerable, especially with his remarks on the whole Oscar circus being widely circulated and taken out of context.  However, I suspect many actors agree with Phoenix's assertions and will reward him for giving one of the year's best performances.

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Unlike the Best Actor race, Best Actress is wide open with possibilities.  Academy favorites Marion Cotillard, Rachel Weisz, and Helen Mirren are all in the discussion, as well, but I think Quvenzhane Wallis will manage to sneak in, since the Academy likes to reward young talent (a la Abigail Breslin and Keisha Castle-Hughes in past years).

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

It feels like madness to leave Robert De Niro off this list, but I think Christoph Waltz will get that fifth slot (the other four seem pretty cemented in place to me).  Javier Bardem, a past winner in this category, could also factor in for his villainous portrayal in Skyfall.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

I never though Nicole Kidman would be in the Oscar conversation, but after SAG and Globe nominations, she seems like she'll get a nod over Ann Dowd and Maggie Smith.  Crossing my fingers for Dowd, though.

Best Original Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Rian Johnson, Looper 
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

The writers branch tend to make some pretty cool picks (such as In Bruges a few years ago), so I think their fifth slot will go to Rian Johnson's well-received sci-fi drama, Looper.  Nicholas Jarecki could also be in play for Arbitrage.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
David Magee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Chris Terrio, Argo
Benh Zeitlen and Lucy Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Stephen Chbosky is the spoiler here for The Perks of Being a Wallflower, but I think this category will be filled by Best Picture nominees.

Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins, Skyfall
Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty
Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln
Mihai Malaimare Jr., The Master
Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild

I only pray that Les Miserables doesn't make it into this category.  Moonrise Kingdom also spoil.

Best Editing
Stuart Baird, Skyfall
Jay Cassidy, Silver Linings Playbook
William Goldenberg, Argo
William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor, Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Kahn, Lincoln

Looks like William Goldenberg will be a double nominee on Thursday.

Best Production Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Category confusion?  This prize was known as Best Art Direction in past years.

Best Costume Design
Bob Buck, Ann Maskrey, and Richard Taylor, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Sharen Davis, Django Unchained
Paco Delgado, Les Miserables
Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina
Joanna Johnston, Lincoln

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln

Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Skyfall 

Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Johnny Greenwood, The Master
Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, and Tom Tykwer, Cloud Atlas
John Williams, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlen and Dan Romer, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Original Song
"Learn Me Right," Brave
"Not Running Anymore," Stand Up Guys
"Skyfall," Skyfall
"Song of the Lonely Mountain," The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
"Suddenly," Les Miserables

Best Sound Editing
The Avengers
Brave
The Dark Knight Rises 
Skyfall 
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Skyfall 
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman 
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph

This category often has an under-the-radar nominee or two, so something like The Rabbi's Cat or Le Tableau could bump one or two of these out.

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
The Intouchables
No
A Royal Affair
War Witch

Best Documentary Feature
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching For Sugar Man
This is Not a Film 

2012 was a stellar year for documentaries, meaning this is a super tough category to predict.  The Imposter, Bully, The House I Live In, and Mea Maxima Culpa all seem just as likely to get nominated as the five I'm predicting.

Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Inocente
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Paraiso
The Perfect Fit

Best Animated Short Film
Combustible
The Eagleman Stag
Head Over Heels
Paperman
Tram 

Best Live Action Short Film
Curfew
Henry
9metere
Salar
when you find me

Taking really wild stabs with these last few categories, since I don't get to see the shorts until after they're nominated for an Oscar.  I'll thus be able to make more educated guesses about what will win.


The Oscar nominations will be announced early Thursday morning.  Check back here to see how well badly I did.