Golden Globe Predictions

The Golden Globes are sometimes thought of as a sort of dress rehearsal for the Oscars, but such a line of thinking is ridiculous at best.  While the Oscars are (mostly) about recognizing the best of the best, the Golden Globes are more or less a chance for all of Hollywood's biggest stars to get together and get drunk. Commercial success is often echoed in what movies take home the hardware, as evident last year when Avatar in explicably took home the Best Picture - Drama trophy and The Hangover beat (500) Days of Summer on the Comedy/Musical side.  That makes it a slightly tougher awards show to call this year, when The Social Network has dominated everything but didn't come close to touching Inception's massive box office.

Regardless, I think The Social Network will take home the three big awards: Best Picture - Drama, Best Director, and Best Screenplay (the Globes don't differentiate between adapted and original screenplays, oddly enough).  At this point, not choosing David Fincher's masterful look at Facebook's creation and the destruction that ensued would make the HFPA seem less relevant than ever before.  Besides, even though it isn't the biggest commercial success, it's done really well at the box office, closing in on $100 million.  Inception seems like its biggest competition because of its sheer commercial success and the way it's penetrated pop culture so deeply, but other pundits suggest that The King's Speech may triumph because of its feel-good story and all-star cast.  Really, the weakest link appears to be Black Swan, which is probably too weird and dark to take home the night's biggest award (Natalie Portman is a safe bet to win Best Actress - Drama, though).

On the Comedy/Musical side, it's a much easier race to call.  The only worthy nominee is The Kids Are All Right.  With an amazing cast, Oscar pedigree, and four nominations, it would be ludicrous for anything else to win, especially when the only other good movie up for the award is RED, which is forgettable fun at best.  Annette Bening should handily win Best Actress - Comedy/Musical: she's a big star and undoubtedly deserves it.  The only scenario I can see with her losing is if she splits votes with costar Julianne Moore, in which case Emma Stone could sneak in for the win, thereby honoring one of Hollywood's newest comedy queens.

Colin Firth will likely take home Best Actor - Drama for The King's Speech.  It's simply a phenomenal performance, and I expect Firth will clean up for the rest of the season, taking the SAG and the Oscar, as well.  While many think Johnny Depp will win for his performance in Alice in Wonderland, he runs the risk of splitting his own vote (though it's hard to imagine anyone voting for The Tourist for any award that doesn't rhyme with spazzy) and the part isn't as meaty as some of the other roles.  I actually expect Paul Giamatti to win for Barney's Version.  I haven't gotten to see the film yet, but it's gotten great reviews, and this category has sometimes gone to smaller films, such as when Colin Firth won for In Bruges a couple years ago.

The supporting races will probably go to The Fighter's Christian Bale and Melissa Leo.  Again, I think these two will continue their momentum throughout the awards season, though Leo faces stiffer competition from costar Amy Adams and (for the SAG and Oscar, likely) Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit.

Whoever wins, tonight's show should be a lot of fun to watch, even if there are moments that make me throw my hands up in anger.  Definitely looking forward to seeing Ricky Gervais ham it up again, and to drooling over all the beautiful ladies in their sparkly gowns.

Full list of predictions:

Best Picture - Drama: The Social Network
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical: The Kids Are All Right
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Best Actor - Drama: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actor - Comedy/Musical: Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Best Actress - Drama: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Actress - Comedy/Musical: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film: I Am Love
Best Original Score: Hans Zimmer, Inception
Best Original Song: "I See the Light," Tangled


On the TV side of things, I expect Mad Men and Modern Family will be the night's big winners, but I don't watch enough TV to really know what might happen.