Golden Globes Predictions

Normally, when the Globes roll around, my predictions are organized along the lines of Will Win and Should Win.  This year, sadly, such a dichotomy is not possible.  Living in Ohio, many of the top awards contenders have yet to open in a theater near me, so I can't fairly pass judgment in most of the big races.  (The Artist, Carnage, Le Havre, and The Iron Lady all opened here this weekend, though, so I'll hopefully see at least a couple of them before Sunday night).

Thus, this awards season, while terribly interesting, has been somewhat frustrating to me, as I can't say whether the varied winners have been deserving or not.  Still, based on what I've heard/read, and my wackily tuned cinematic instinct, I'll do my best to guess who will win big with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association this year.  In the cases where I can choose what contender should (or shouldn't) win, I will gladly do so.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

The HFPA is known for showering awards on big moneymakers, such as the one-two punch of Avatar and The Hangover two years ago, but the almighty dollar is not always mighty, as shown by The Social Network topping Inception last year.  Thus, while The Help seems like the popular vote - it's been widely acclaimed and made bank at the box office - its lack of a Best Director nomination prevents me from thinking it actually has a chance to win.  I think this will be a year when the HFPA is more concerned with the quality of the filmmaking than the dollars in the bank.  I think Alexander Payne's carefully-wrought familial drama will just eke out a win over Martin Scorsese's love letter to cinema, thanks in part to the starpower of George Clooney.

Will Win: The Descendants
Should Win: Hugo
Shouldn't Win: War Horse

Best Actress - Drama

Even with Michelle Williams relegated to the Comedy/Musical side of the proceedings, this is one of the night's most competitive races.  Meryl Streep is a favorite with the HFPA, but I think The Help will find a win here.

Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help

Best Actor - Drama

Has there ever been a better-looking lineup for Best Actor?  The answer is no, and this category is also littered with huge stars (including rising star Michael Fassbender).  The HFPA is clearly wilder about The Ides of March than any other group out there, but I think Ryan Gosling will be beaten out by his Ides director for his touching turn in The Descendants.  Brad Pitt is a possible spoiler for his fully-formed performance in Moneyball.

Will Win: George Clooney, The Descendants

Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical

I can't remember a time when this category was so packed with deserving nominees.  No Burlesque-esque filler this year.  The Artist is the clear favorite here.  Even with various groups' picks being all over the map, The Artist has racked up the most wins and has held onto enough (but not too much) momentum to likely carry it throughout the rest of awards season, right to the Oscars.  The biggest competition comes from Midnight in Paris.  I would consider Bridesmaids a dark horse if it weren't for Melissa McCarthy's inexcusable snub.

Will Win: The Artist

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical

This is Michelle Williams' race to lose.  She does a fantastic time capturing Marilyn Monroe's insecurity, beauty, and undeniable charm.  Even not having seen Carnage yet, however, my personal pick is Kristen Wiig, whose work in Bridesmaids ranks amongst my very favorite performances of the year.  The depth she gives Annie is surprising and serves as the heart of a movie that one might not expect to have one.

Will Win: Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Should Win: Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical

This one seems like another no-brainer.  While these are some great performances from quality actors, Jean Dujardin is the only one who has had any sort of awards presence.  Ryan Gosling could spoil to make up for his loss in the Drama category, as could Joseph Gordon-Levitt to make up for his loss two years ago to Robert Downey Jr. (ridiculous).  But neither of those is a likely scenario.  Count on Dujardin to win on his way to an Oscar nomination.

Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Best Supporting Actress

The Help contenders may cancel each other out, leaving room for Berenice Bejo to find a win.  From what I've heard, Bejo's role is more lead than supporting, so she could benefit from more screentime and general goodwill for The Artist.  Then again, if The Descendants does as well as I expect (although I had a similar inclination about Up in the Air two years ago), Shailene Woodley has a shot, too.  Basically, I'm saying that I have no idea.

Will Win: Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Best Supporting Actor

Throughout the season, this category has been a face-off between Albert Brooks and Christopher Plummer.  Both actors represent the sole nomination for their respective films, so it's hard to say who has the better chance of winning here.  Thus, I'll go with the performance that I personally think is better: Plummer's.

Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Director

This is another tough-to-call category, not that I'm complaining.  I much prefer the sort of vague, open races that this season has been defined by.  The Descendants is more a writers' and actors' movie than than a directors', do despite The Descendants winning Best Picture, I don't think Payne is a big contender here.  Instead, I think this race comes down to Michel Hazanavicius and Martin Scorsese.  While The Artist will take home a few awards, I think the HFPA's love for Scorsese will bring him another win in the category, thus giving Hugo its share of the gold, too.

Will Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Best Screenplay

Another strong line-up, another instance of multiple nominees having a good chance of winning.  Maybe I'm just hoping that the HFPA will really spread the love this year, but I think Woody Allen's delightful, smart work in Midnight in Paris will eke out a win.

Will Win: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Best Animated Film

While Rango has been the favorite for most groups, I think Spielberg's name and the impressive motion-capture technology will put Tintin on top.

Will Win: The Adventures of Tintin

Best Foreign Language Film

There are some big names in this category with Angelina Jolie and Pedro Almodovar behind two of the nominees, but A Separation has been a nigh-unstoppable force throughout the season, and I expect its dominance to continue here.  (On a personal note, I'm hoping the Iranian drama lands in Columbus before the Oscars, as I expect it to win there, too.)

Will Win: A Separation

Best Original Score

Another win for The Artist.  It will be the night's big winner.

Will Win: Ludovico Bource, The Artist

Best Original Song

With the Muppets out of the running, this is a very boring category.  Expect The Help to compliment Viola Davis's trophy with another win here.

Will Win: "The Living Proof," The Help

With such strong contenders on both sides, this should be one of the more satisfying Globes ceremonies, as it would be pretty hard for the HFPA to pick non-deserving winners (I'm looking at you, War Horse).  The Comedy/Musical side is a bit easier to call thanks to how The Artist has dominated thus far, so expect most of my wrong predictions to come from the Drama and combined categories.

I'll be live-tweeting the Globes on Sunday, so if you're not following me on Twitter, you should do so now - the handle is @schmvngpctrs.

Happy prognosticating!